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Cross-asset growth comparator

Compare compounding paths for equities, gold, bitcoin-style volatility and cash side by side — including a drawdown stress test.

Median compounding paths

Lines are median outcomes from a log-normal model, not forecasts. The shaded band shows the 10th–90th percentile range for the highlighted asset — the honest version of "expected return".

Assumptions & derived numbers

Edit any white cell. Everything recalculates instantly.

Asset Avg return Volatility Median CAGR Variance drain Median end 10th pct end

Setup

Why the median beats the average

An asset averaging +25% a year with 65% volatility has a median compound rate far below 25%. Losses and gains are not symmetric: −50% needs +100% to undo. The gap between the two columns is the price of volatility, and it is why position sizing matters more than return forecasting.

Read the full explanation →
No account, no tracking of your inputs: this tool is plain JavaScript and every number stays on your device.

About this tool

Are these real historical returns?
No. The presets are editable assumptions loosely anchored to long-run averages so you can see the shape of compounding and the cost of drawdowns. They are not forecasts and not a backtest of any specific fund.
Why does the high-volatility line look worse than its average return suggests?
Because compounding punishes variance: a −50% year needs +100% to recover. The geometric (compound) return is always below the arithmetic average when volatility is present — this tool shows that gap explicitly.

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