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Cross-asset growth comparator
Compare compounding paths for equities, gold, bitcoin-style volatility and cash side by side — including a drawdown stress test.
Median compounding paths
Lines are median outcomes from a log-normal model, not forecasts. The shaded band shows the 10th–90th percentile range for the highlighted asset — the honest version of "expected return".
Assumptions & derived numbers
Edit any white cell. Everything recalculates instantly.
| Asset | Avg return | Volatility | Median CAGR | Variance drain | Median end | 10th pct end |
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Why the median beats the average
An asset averaging +25% a year with 65% volatility has a median compound rate far below 25%. Losses and gains are not symmetric: −50% needs +100% to undo. The gap between the two columns is the price of volatility, and it is why position sizing matters more than return forecasting.
Read the full explanation →
No account, no tracking of your inputs: this tool is plain JavaScript and every number stays on your device.
About this tool
Are these real historical returns?
No. The presets are editable assumptions loosely anchored to long-run averages so you can see the shape of compounding and the cost of drawdowns. They are not forecasts and not a backtest of any specific fund.
Why does the high-volatility line look worse than its average return suggests?
Because compounding punishes variance: a −50% year needs +100% to recover. The geometric (compound) return is always below the arithmetic average when volatility is present — this tool shows that gap explicitly.